Research firm Strategas released data showing that their own inflation indicator grew at a rate of 3.8% year-over-year. The “Common Man CPI” measure focuses on items that people must buy regularly – food, energy, shelter, clothing, utilities, and insurance.

This marks the ninth consecutive month where the Common Man CPI has surpassed the headline inflation figure. Throughout President Biden’s term, the index has exceeded the headline inflation number in 34 out of 40 months.

Strategas suggests that this persistent trend may pose a challenge for President Biden as election issues come to the forefront.

“President Biden may be running out of time to turn voters’ perceptions of things around,” the firm said.

In a related note, BCA Research acknowledged the accumulating difficulties faced by the Biden administration.

They indicated that a change in their election outlook might be considered during the summer if current trends continue.

BCA Research’s quantitative models still show a slight preference for Democrats in the White House and Republicans in the Senate, aligning with their qualitative analysis.

They also noted that, although the economy does not show signs of an imminent recession, vulnerabilities are beginning to show due to sustained high interest rates.

Moreover, foreign policy setbacks represent another potential risk to President Biden.

“The neck-and-neck US election should lead to higher political risk and policy uncertainty, which should weigh on investor sentiment in the middle of the year,” BCA said.

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