A specialist trader works inside a post on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on Oct. 23, 2024.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Treasury yields surged Wednesday as Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election over Vice President Kamala Harris, along with a strong showing for Congressional Republicans across the country.
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped more than 14 basis points to trade at 4.433%, hitting its highest level since July during the session, as investors bet a Trump presidency would increase economic growth and potentially fiscal spending.
The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up by about 7 basis points to 4.274%, reaching its highest level since July 31. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. Yields and prices have an inverted relationship.
NBC News projected that Trump won the presidential election, driven by victories in North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia. NBC News also projected Republicans are expected to regain majority control of the U.S. Senate in 2025. The House was still up for grabs, leaving open the possibility of a Republican sweep.
The general thinking on Wall Street ahead of the election was that bond yields could see a big pop in the event of a Trump win, and they could surge in a Republican sweep, where the party captures control of Congress and the White House. That is because Republicans may introduce tax cuts and steep tariffs, which could spark economic growth but also widen the fiscal deficit and reignite inflation.
“If there’s a Republican sweep of House, Senate and the presidency, I expect the bond market to be wobbly,” Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday. “I expect them to be worried that Trump would enact all those tax cuts, and I think bond yields would rise.”
Neither Trump nor Harris really promised fiscal discipline on the campaign trail, raising worries that investors will demand higher yields in exchange for holding Treasurys as the government is forced to issue more and more debt to fund its ballooning spending.
Yields were moving higher even before the election. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield surged 50 basis points in October, marking the biggest monthly increase since September 2022.
The big jump in rates comes even though the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate in September and indicated further cuts ahead. On Thursday, the central will make its next decision on interest rates.
Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab, said the bond market is now in a “new regime” as the impact of the election comes into focus.
“I’d say that the path of least resistance now for yields is higher, simply because the market really wasn’t prepared for this outcome, and now it will take time to figure out what the actual legislation might be, and then what the Fed’s reaction function will be,” Jones said.
“That’s going to keep a floor probably under yields, and it could open up the door to the 10-year going back to 5%,” she added.
— CNBC’s Alex Harring and Sarah Min contributed reporting.
