Best buyers’ markets in Canadian real estate — for now

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If you looking to buy a home in Toronto, now might be the time, according to a new study — but don’t wait too long.

According to online realtor Zoocasa, Canada’s largest city has the lowest sales-to-new listings ratio among the country’s major centres.

Zoocasa analyzed markets across Canada based on these ratios, using September data from the Canada Real Estate Association. 

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The ratio or SNLR is calculated as the number of sales divided by the number of new listings. A percentage over 60 per cent is a seller’s market, while below 40 per cent is a buyer’s market.

In the Greater Toronto Area where new listings are outpacing demand, the sales-to-new listings ratio has slipped from 29 per cent in 2023 to 28 per cent.

The rebalancing has brought buyers relief from the intense competition and bidding wars seen in previous years, said Zoocasa’s Angela Serednicki, who wrote the report.

“While the GTA remains one of Canada’s priciest markets, this shift offers a more accessible window for buyers, making it an encouraging time to step into homeownership in one of the country’s most desirable urban hubs,” she said.

But perhaps not for long.

In October, sales in the Toronto area shot up 44.4 per cent from the year before, suggesting that more affordable prices and Bank of Canada interest rate cuts were bringing buyers back to market.

In the Greater Vancouver Area, another buyers’ market with a SNLR of 30 per cent, sales were up 32 per cent last month, with sales of all property types increasing by double-digits.

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Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada, says the rise in supply in the housing market is for the most part a welcome development.

The increase in new listings in September was the biggest since July, 2023, and “may be a sign that many sellers are anticipating stronger demand this fall,” he said.

Economists expect home sales will continue to pick up as the Bank of Canada shaves more off its interest rate.

Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, says the turning point could come when mortgage rates fall below 4 per cent, which BMO suspects will happen next year.

“Recall that sub-4 per cent was the norm before this tightening cycle (rates pushed to about 3.75 per cent by early 2019). For buyers waiting for ‘rates to fall’, that could be a trigger,” he said.

Of the 26 Canadian markets Zoocasa included in the study 12 or 46 per cent remain sellers’ markets, eight are buyers and six are balanced.

Some of the strongest sellers’ markets are cities that normally would be off the beaten track in real estate, suggesting affordability is a growing part of the appeal.

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Thunder Bay has one of the country’s highest sales-to-new listings ratio at 87 per cent and Regina is not far behind with its SNLR rising from 68 per cent in 2023 to 78 per cent in 2024. Sudbury’s ratio has also increased from 58 per cent to 70 per cent.

“These shifts highlight how smaller Canadian markets are experiencing heightened demand, presenting sellers with lucrative opportunities in areas that often provide more affordability and strong investment potential compared to the country’s larger urban centres.”

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Canada gained about half as many jobs as expected in October, but the unemployment rate didn’t budge when economists had expected it to rise.

Considering a weakening labour market was one of the reasons the Bank of Canada upped its rate cut to 50 basis points last month, Friday’s data wasn’t a big help in predicting the central bank’s next move.

Markets now have the odds of a 50-bps cut next month at about a coin toss, and with one more jobs report before the bank’s Dec. 11 rate decision, only time will tell.

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McLister on mortgages

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Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven, with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

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