Several Wall Street banking giants are forecasting blue skies for US equities – at least until 2024 comes to a close.
Morgan Stanley chief US equity strategist Mike Wilson tells Bloomberg that he expects the S&P 500 to revisit all-time high levels by the end of the year.
But Wilson warns equities will likely see a consolidation period as a new year unfolds.
“We’re into the FOMO (fear of missing out season). People need to perform the next two months. There’s a lot of things going on here.
I could see a blow-off move of some kind post-election, a clearing event, but then reality sets in that we’re going to have some fiscal consolidation next year… In my view, that has to happen, and that’s going to create uncertainty.”
The Morgan Stanley executive is also detailing his year-end target for the S&P 500.
“I think we could see 6,000 [points] potentially in some sort of a clearing event. There’s not a lot of consternation, people feel good about things.
But I think it’s really hard for us to get past 6,000 to 6,100 [points] in any scenario because you’re so stretched on valuation. And I don’t see growth accelerating in a kind of way which would justify higher multiples for 2025.”
Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase’s head of US market intelligence, Andrew Tyler, believes the stock market will go on bigger rallies in the last two months of the year compared to what was witnessed eight years ago after Donald Trump won his first presidential election.
“I expect 2024 returns to be larger than 2016.”
In 2016, the S&P 500 soared by over 5% during the last two months of the year.
Citi’s outlook for the S&P 500 is aligned with the predictions of JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley. Scott Chronert, the bank’s US equity strategist, believes the stock market can soar to as high as 6,100 points before 2024 expires, reports Barron’s.
“We reiterate our view that investors should tactically fade a postelection rally should the S&P 500 exceed our 6,100 year-end bull case target, which roughly aligns with a +5% index move from election day.”
As of Friday’s close, the S&P 500 is trading at 5,870 points.
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